Heading back to Fasher

With the recent threats of attack against the city relegated to little more than rumor, I head back to Fasher to resume our programming. I do so after many checks with resident organizations that it is safe to return to the area.

The most important barometer of relative stability, the city's marketplace, is bustling with people and so I return cautiously optimistic that I will have the right environment in which to get our work done.

It has been interesting to see that Sudan barely registers in the international press especially against such headliners like the Chinese earthquake, Myamar typhoon, and Beirut clashses, but that is to be expected I supposed. Everything seem far more news worthy when you are in middle of the events as they unfold.

The city of Fasher is engaged in an ambitious rewiring project to compensate for the sharp increase in residents needing power. My neighborhood is close to the firing range as I mentioned in previous posts. That is because the city is expanding exponentially. The firing range had been built nearly a mile from the city center. It is the city that has come to rest on its perimeter and not the result of bad planning or indifference on the part of the military. Just thought I should make that note for balance.

While the rewiring process continues, our office and many others have been affected. No power for four days. I hope that five days is the charm. Still no generator and I do not anticipate that we will get one for another month at the rate at which my organization is moving. Temperatures are now averaging 100 degrees each day. My dad would probably say that is nothing compared to his desert abode where temperatures linger at 107 for months, but without air conditioning, swamp coolers, or even an operating fan, it can make sleep a pretty elusive thing. And 100 degrees is only the beginning. I have been told that 115 is not uncommon in Khartoum. I am hoping that Darfur is a tad cooler. In the meantime, it is all about keeping focus on the mind and letting go of any resistance to my new environment. Embracing the heat as it were.

More later when I get settled in.

Back in Khartoum

I managed to catch a flight back to Khartoum for a pow-wow with the admin and program heads about the way forward in the current climate.

El Fasher is in good shape with the rumors of an imminent attack falling away shortly after UN declared the immediate crisis to be over and lifting the curfew. Hard to make sense of it all. But at least life in the city is returning to a cautious normal state. The market reopened today and the tensions have dropped considerably. Was all this tension caused by the UN report of an imminent attack? Really hard to say. But increasingly, the public is very sensitive to reports coming from international organizations. The market is a very volatile place and I am sure that it picked up on United Nations Peacekeeping chatter as much as anyone.

Still, we are watching the situation carefully to determine whether it is safe to return to the field. The government maintains restrictions on any UN flight to Fasher, to keep UN staff safe given the UN prediction of an imminent attack.

I am just happy that there was no attack and that everyone is okay there. No one wants to see an attack on any Sudan cities. Urban warfare just takes too many innocent lives. All of us want the fighting to stop period. No matter which side is at fault.

I hope to get a clearer picture of my potential return to the field soon. In the meantime, we are not going to make any rash decisions based on posturing between the UN and the government.

Peace to you all.

Tensions continue to mount but mostly below the surface

Khartoum returned to 'normal' or however close to normal one can return after the scene that unfolded on May 11 and 12. The sights and sounds were captured on the international press from BBC to Al Jazeera. [Click HERE and HERE for videos for biased but colorful Al Jazeera coverage] So I assume you have seen the helicopter gunships firing rockets into the most densely populated areas of the city because that is the area from which JEM chose to launch their attack.

Discussions with Darfurians about the attack and the act of war in an dense urban setting have been revealing. Some will tell you that the government is at fault for firing at a group that was only going to attack selected targets. Others will tell you that the government has not gone far enough to secure the city from further attacks. President Bashir addressed the nation today to let the armed forces and residents of Khartoum how much he appreciated their resolve and ability to thwart this attack against them. It was an invigorating speech but did not reveal the next step for this nation. See excerpts of the speech here

And the fact that we still do not know what is to come has all the NGOs here preparing for the worst. Well, almost. The worst would be full scale war and evacuation to another country to sit it out. Most here do not expect the situation to be quite so bad. Even if there is an escalation, most do not expect to be without access to food or water for more than a few days, so people are stocking up. The price of bottled water in town jumped a few Sudanese pounds and my usual go-to-guy would not budge on the new price. I have a laundry list of products to buy tomorrow in case it does indeed come to sitting in a compound for a week waiting this thing out.

Most NGOs have compounds (joint office and residence) or group homes, so the thought of 'hibernation' - the term of art used to describe the decision to remain in place until the storm has passed - is not quite so bad. I do not know if the experience is quite so appealing to do the waiting alone. At least I have neighbors who could be a source of company if the waiting gets lonely.

I have managed to secure a ticket to fly to Khartoum this weekend, so I will be able to leave Darfur to get some perspective and then return early next week. The program work is really building and we have to keep the momentum going. No plans to put things on hold unless we really need to do so. It is interesting being in this environment where people look at you funny when you ask whether they were thinking about relocating (another term of art meaning getting non local staff out of the city but not out of the country). Most are here with the expectation that there will be violent conflict now and then. The mandatory 2 week rest and relaxation (R&R) breaks every 3 months plus 30 days annual leave is meant to compensate for the added stress.

Cant say if there will actually be a flight this weekend. Lots of flights are being reserved, but cancellations are outside the airline's control for now. So I will just cross my fingers about that possibility and in the meantime focus on work.

Did I mention that it is crazy hot here right now? I wake up with a pool of water in the indentation that my head makes in the pillow. Have to think more seriously about moving one of the swamp coolers into my bedroom.

Hope this entry finds you are well and in good spirits. Despite it all, I am enjoying my time in Darfur and still feel like I have made the right decision to come here.

Okay, I was way off. Situation definitely becoming worse

Well, I guess it is not always just rumor. Turns out that the rebel groups did indeed attack Khartoum. The situation is fluid. Right now all the airports in Darfur are closed by order of the government, so I am stuck. Not that I would necessarily want to evacuate to Khartoum given its problems over the last few days. In case you missed it all. Here is a a summary of what happened.

April 20 – May 8

JEM and SLA Unity troops reported to be gathering in NNE Darfur. 3-4 columns of rebel troops moved into North Kordofan on May 8 and 9.

Friday May 9 Morning:

Rumours spread of possible coup (rumours reaching UN in NY). Noon: Ministry of Foreign Affairs reports: 3,000 JEM troops are making their way through North Kordofan to Khartoum Arabic-speaking foreigners are reportedly among the JEM force It comprises 4 columns led by Khalil Ibrahim and commander Abdel Ashr The GOS described it as a “suicidal action” SAF has been ordered to confront JEM and block its route – but also to “show restraint” in order to avoid civilian casualties in populated areas They are concerned that JEM will attack cities such as Al Nahud and El Fasher on their return from Khartoum Salva Kiir offered troops to support the GOS, and Minni Minnawi offered information and intelligence Afternoon: Clashes reported between JEM and SAF at Um Qarein in North Kordofan

Saturday May 10 Morning:

Quiet and no incident reported Afternoon and evening:
16:45: Shooting starts in Omdurman between JEM and SAF
17:00: GOS tanks and helicopters deployed from the main airport
17:00-20:00: Three hours of heavy fighting in Omdurman. Two main attacks were launched – one from the north of Omdurman and one from the west of Omdurman.
02:00-04:00 (May 11th): Further shooting reporting west of Omdurman Evening: President Bashir breaks off ties with Chad, and announces that Sudan “reserves the right to respond to attacks”. Sudanese state media announces links between Chad and the rebel attack. Sunday

May 11

Withdrawal of JEM from Omdurman – not known where to, or how many troops. JEM suffered significant losses, including Jamali (JEM Number 2 commander and Khalil Ibrahim’s right hand man) The GOS reports Khalil Ibrahim is wounded and hiding in Khartoum and offers $125,000 reward for his capture

On Sunday night, opposition leader Hassan al Turabi is arrested, along with 5 colleagues from his Popular Congress Party (PCP). Casualties (civilians and armed actors) All information still very much unconfirmed

GOS: Open sources report 10 SAF, 20 police and 20 National Security fatalities

JEM: Reports of around 67 JEM fatalities, 120 arrested and 30 vehicles destroyed. GOS reports between 45-200 JEM killed Civilians: GOS reports 15 civilians killed by JEM (in one attack on a biscuit factory).

Q&A INGO representatives asked UNDSS whether visitors should be advised to travel to Khartoum. UNDSS advised if flights were available, they did not see a problem. INGOs asked for future meetings to discuss how to improve communication and coordination with UNDSS, as focal points have shifted in last few months.

The UNDSS representative flagged some challenges created by the split between UNAMID (covering Darfur) and UNMIS (covering Rest of Sudan). However, a follow-up meeting was agreed.

INGOs asked given the regional factors and implications of this incident (involving Chad, Darfur and Rest of Sudan), how does UNAMID, UNMIS, EUFOR AND MINURCAT exchange information and analysis?

INGOs emphasised need for better information sharing, analysis and contingency planning (eg for staff safety and preparation for population movements/humanitarian needs).

May update and developments

Tensions in El Fasher dropped below what the international press would call newsworthy but we saw a continuation of attacks and exchanges of gunfire between government forces in the city center in late April. At one point heavy weapons were used and I spent much of the night consoling my guard whose family lives in the neighborhood where much of the fighting was taking place. But thankfully, while the problem has not been settled, the resolve of the gunmen to use violence to settle the matter has waned and the city is back to its normal state. Khartoum finally made the decision to ship out the soldiers who were at odds with the resident forces and we have not heard any shot since then.

I was able to take a 5 days vacation in Egypt on the Red Sea. The break was supposed to be spent in London with a woman I have been trying to date, but the exit visa required to leave Sudan came late and later still until finally it seemed that I would have only three days to get some distance from Sudan. As it turns out, the programming here has been delayed and I was given an extra two nights. Good news for my nerves, but not such good news for my attempt at a long-distance relationship.

As I write this message, I am pondering a security alert that was issued late last night that the government is mobilizing its troops to counter a massive JEM rebel offensive against the capital city of Khartoum.

In reporting this matter, I am not revealing any privileged information about this development. Sudanese authorities and the Sudanese army issued a statement late last night stating that they have received information of an imminent plot by a Darfur rebel group to attack the capital and other major cities in the country. The statement cites preparations made by rebel Khalil Ibrahim to conduct sabotage attempt and a publicity stunt through infiltrating the capital and other towns. The statement also mentions that the army is mobilizing planes and other materiel to stop the rebel advancement.

Read more about this development here - Sudan steps up security, says Darfur rebels advance

Hard to believe that this groups, which occupies territory along the Chadian border, is capable of taking on the Sudanese army with its tanks, planes, and soldiers many hundreds of miles across the desert from their main territory. We get security reports fairly often, and we have to decide if they are credible and warrant a cessation of our activities or whether we should just shelve them on the “continue with caution" shelf. For now, I am doing the latter. Fortunately, I am not in Khartoum but I am concerned about this offensive being an excuse to up the level of fighting in Darfur. We have received reports of bombings of villages just north of us. The incidents were limited in scope and in casualties but are worrying nonetheless. I just hope this is not part of a trend that leads to escalation.

Sitting with two old men in the market having our tenth cup of tea of the day and catching that caffeine buzz, I asked them whether they thought the recent violence was alarming. The two looked at each other and then at me and smiled. "The situation is getting better not worse," they said. Both men deal in cloth in the main market in El Fasher. "Business is booming and there are more types of things to sell and a growing market to sell them in," the grey haired vendor told me. They did not mind that the products are cheaper in quality and mostly from India or China, so long as there were people interested in them and willing to pay. The height of the war saw the supply lines literally disappear as truck drivers were unwilling to take the risk of a desert trek through several front lines. Today, convoys of 150 trucks or more cross the desert together in hopes of diminishing the chance of highway banditry. Many drivers still must pay 'road taxes' of several hundred dollars to armed gunman who have staked their claim to a portion of the desert, hoping to strike it rich with one good heist.

The downside of the influx of indian and Chinese products is that Darfur residents have become consumers and production has dropped to almost nothing. Darfur used to supply meat to all of Sudan. It was also the major source of citrus and other vegetables and fruits. Today, Sudan imports most of its produce and meat. The new oil-based economy has neglected to invest in improving education, building skills for local and international markets, and reducing unemployment. Instead, the new oil wealth is being used to import all its needs. The new imports are cheaper but with the decrease in jobs, who can afford to buy them? It is a dilemma that a few younger businessmen shared with me this morning. Ahmed sells tins of fish, soap, and other small items from a corner shop. He has a university degree in agriculture but sees no future in food production because of the limited market. He is also afraid to venture back into the fields because of insecurity in the area. He is hoping to develop a new skill set and maybe work as a mason or a welder. These two professions are the most profitable today in Darfur, since all construction is either of metal or stone. And as I mentioned earlier, El Fasher is experiencing a construction boom. But Ahmed noted that "the bigger construction projects are being conducted by Chinese and Indian contractors. They use Sudanese labor but do not leave any of their expertise and know-how behind. In the end, the contract is completed to the satisfaction of the owner but it is impossible to repeat the process. The Chinese also often bring in their own labor for the specialized assignments."

I hope to update this blog on the events in Khartoum tomorrow. But it appears that the crisis there is all but over as the government claims to have stopped the rebel advance.

Read this article on the latest - Sudanese army steps up security in the capital