May update and developments

Tensions in El Fasher dropped below what the international press would call newsworthy but we saw a continuation of attacks and exchanges of gunfire between government forces in the city center in late April. At one point heavy weapons were used and I spent much of the night consoling my guard whose family lives in the neighborhood where much of the fighting was taking place. But thankfully, while the problem has not been settled, the resolve of the gunmen to use violence to settle the matter has waned and the city is back to its normal state. Khartoum finally made the decision to ship out the soldiers who were at odds with the resident forces and we have not heard any shot since then.

I was able to take a 5 days vacation in Egypt on the Red Sea. The break was supposed to be spent in London with a woman I have been trying to date, but the exit visa required to leave Sudan came late and later still until finally it seemed that I would have only three days to get some distance from Sudan. As it turns out, the programming here has been delayed and I was given an extra two nights. Good news for my nerves, but not such good news for my attempt at a long-distance relationship.

As I write this message, I am pondering a security alert that was issued late last night that the government is mobilizing its troops to counter a massive JEM rebel offensive against the capital city of Khartoum.

In reporting this matter, I am not revealing any privileged information about this development. Sudanese authorities and the Sudanese army issued a statement late last night stating that they have received information of an imminent plot by a Darfur rebel group to attack the capital and other major cities in the country. The statement cites preparations made by rebel Khalil Ibrahim to conduct sabotage attempt and a publicity stunt through infiltrating the capital and other towns. The statement also mentions that the army is mobilizing planes and other materiel to stop the rebel advancement.

Read more about this development here - Sudan steps up security, says Darfur rebels advance

Hard to believe that this groups, which occupies territory along the Chadian border, is capable of taking on the Sudanese army with its tanks, planes, and soldiers many hundreds of miles across the desert from their main territory. We get security reports fairly often, and we have to decide if they are credible and warrant a cessation of our activities or whether we should just shelve them on the “continue with caution" shelf. For now, I am doing the latter. Fortunately, I am not in Khartoum but I am concerned about this offensive being an excuse to up the level of fighting in Darfur. We have received reports of bombings of villages just north of us. The incidents were limited in scope and in casualties but are worrying nonetheless. I just hope this is not part of a trend that leads to escalation.

Sitting with two old men in the market having our tenth cup of tea of the day and catching that caffeine buzz, I asked them whether they thought the recent violence was alarming. The two looked at each other and then at me and smiled. "The situation is getting better not worse," they said. Both men deal in cloth in the main market in El Fasher. "Business is booming and there are more types of things to sell and a growing market to sell them in," the grey haired vendor told me. They did not mind that the products are cheaper in quality and mostly from India or China, so long as there were people interested in them and willing to pay. The height of the war saw the supply lines literally disappear as truck drivers were unwilling to take the risk of a desert trek through several front lines. Today, convoys of 150 trucks or more cross the desert together in hopes of diminishing the chance of highway banditry. Many drivers still must pay 'road taxes' of several hundred dollars to armed gunman who have staked their claim to a portion of the desert, hoping to strike it rich with one good heist.

The downside of the influx of indian and Chinese products is that Darfur residents have become consumers and production has dropped to almost nothing. Darfur used to supply meat to all of Sudan. It was also the major source of citrus and other vegetables and fruits. Today, Sudan imports most of its produce and meat. The new oil-based economy has neglected to invest in improving education, building skills for local and international markets, and reducing unemployment. Instead, the new oil wealth is being used to import all its needs. The new imports are cheaper but with the decrease in jobs, who can afford to buy them? It is a dilemma that a few younger businessmen shared with me this morning. Ahmed sells tins of fish, soap, and other small items from a corner shop. He has a university degree in agriculture but sees no future in food production because of the limited market. He is also afraid to venture back into the fields because of insecurity in the area. He is hoping to develop a new skill set and maybe work as a mason or a welder. These two professions are the most profitable today in Darfur, since all construction is either of metal or stone. And as I mentioned earlier, El Fasher is experiencing a construction boom. But Ahmed noted that "the bigger construction projects are being conducted by Chinese and Indian contractors. They use Sudanese labor but do not leave any of their expertise and know-how behind. In the end, the contract is completed to the satisfaction of the owner but it is impossible to repeat the process. The Chinese also often bring in their own labor for the specialized assignments."

I hope to update this blog on the events in Khartoum tomorrow. But it appears that the crisis there is all but over as the government claims to have stopped the rebel advance.

Read this article on the latest - Sudanese army steps up security in the capital