Good analysis from a Gulf State perspective

Kharartoum and Crocodile Tears, by Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed Al-Arabiya News Channel, July 24, 2008 The shock triggered by the ICC prosecutor's decision to charge Sudanese president Omar Bashir of war crimes has passed. We don't know yet if the government in Khartoum has recovered from its awe or is still at the peak of its anger. Here is the messenger of crises, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, starting a series of trips to and from the Sudanese capital, ones that might last for long if the government keeps its mouth shut and its ears open. On the first days of shock, some of the Sudanese officials showered me with criticism because I wrote that in principle the ICC has the right to try regimes that abuse power against their people. I didn't say that president Bashir, or anyone else, is guilty. I just said the principle is right and necessary to deter regimes that err. I am sure the decision was welcome by the intelligentsia and political activists in the Arab world and those who see that some regimes are not satisfied with imprisoning the symbols of opposition, but also go as far killing hundreds, even thousands, of their own people. Instead of criticizing the court or the opposition, Sudanese officials have to think about the ordeal they are facing now. They have to listen to those who oppose them and criticize them and not just those who shed crocodile tears and declare fake solidarity. Wise, balanced thinking might lead to a solution, but those who only cheer will make them sink deeper into the ICC swamp. I remind them that the current regime in Sudan is no stronger than that of Saddam, no richer than that of Libya at the time of Lockerbie, and not more important than that of Yugoslavia at the time of the Bosnian war. In a matter of months, the case will get more serious and the Sudanese regime will not find support from any of the Arab governments. Their Chinese ally, with all the support it gave to the Bashir regime and to the dictator of Zimbabwe, will not jeopardize its international interests. They will do what the Russians did when they supported Milosevic with money and weapons due to blood, religious, and political ties with the Serbs; but when he was arrested and tried, they abandoned him. If we want to enumerate the mistakes of the Sudanese regime, we will fill entire books. Throughout the past three years, the Sudanese government has been defying all human rights organizations and delegates that kept prompting it to solve the Darfur crisis. Instead of complying with international demands, the regime kept claiming that the situation is stable in Darfur and that reports about assaults, arson, expulsion, and killing were sheer lies. I am sure that at the time Khartoum was capable of solving the problem and cooperating with the international community to end the tragedy. But because the government is used to suppressing opposition, it ignored all international protests and branded the protestors a bunch of unworthy artists, intellectuals and women. That's how the matter reached the court, and the Khartoum leaders did not realize how serious it was. They were not aware that there are international demands for their trial. Added to that, no head of state will dare to obstruct the court since we are in the big elections year. If the Arab League plan, delivered by Secretary General Amr Moussa, aims at solving the Darfur problem and not just getting Bashir out of his ordeal, then this is a smart and fair step. The main purpose is not to defy the court or support Bashir or to declare him innocent, but to achieve a balance. It is true that the Arab League called for respecting the sovereignty of nations, but this was just embellished talk that aimed at calming things down and did not benefit the Sudanese government in one way or another. The most challenging mission is finding a solution that satisfies the UN Security Council, such as holding an international conference to solve the Darfur problem, which means getting the Sudanese government to agree to something it has been rejecting for years. The sovereignty pretext is no longer valid as the death of thousands necessitates international intervention in any country and under any circumstances. The international conference will mean the Sudanese government will no longer be in charge of handling the crisis in the plighted province and could thus be the only way to save the regime from being chased. Handing the reins to the international community is much better than arresting and trying the president. No matter how much support the Sudanese leaders are getting from internal or external parties, they realize—or at least feel—that lots of those harbor feelings against them and that some of them are happy to see the tiger in the cage. No matter how much support they garner inside or outside Sudan, there will be two problems. First, it is temporary support and second, it has no effect on the ICC. After the crowds are dispersed, the regime will have to face the court. That is why I wish that Khartoum would get over the initial shock and start to think wisely about giving up the incriminating language and menacing strategy because this will not stop the ICC. Sooner or later, Sudanese leaders will discover that most of the tears are those of crocodiles and that if they don't help themselves, nobody will. The Sudanese regime should not count on internal and external support and should not delude itself with the immunity of sovereignty because all this is talk that runs like water through sand on the sea shore. The real enemy of the regime is that which implicated it and deceived it into believing that the court has no right to try it under the pretext that it is not a signatory to its treaty. The matter got serious when the Security Council referred the Darfur case to the ICC. At this point, the court verdict becomes obligatory for all states, including those who didn't sign the treaty. Now, the situation is complicated and a solution outside the court is not guaranteed. However, if the regime solves the problem of hundreds of thousands of refugees in Darfur, this might strengthen the position of those who want to help it. If the Sudanese government agrees to power sharing with other Sudanese factions it deprived of ruling the country, the Sudanese people could unite to support it. Finally, Khartoum’s leaders should learn from precedents, whether those who were saved because they compromised or those who fell because they were obstinate. * Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed is the general manager of Al-Arabiya News Channel. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla. (This opinion piece was translated from Arabic by Sonia Farid).

Confuson and Dangerous Politics

The threats that led the UN to move the security level to phase IV in Darfur and phase III in Khartoum seemed to all but vanish over the past week. Phase IV protocols require that all UN agencies relocate or evacuate all non-essential personnel. We had been holding meeting on a daily basis with UN humanitarian coordinating bodies discussing how many NGOs would qualify for evacuation should the situation go phase V which requires the evacuation of all personnel. Many NGOs voiced concern about the possible loss of important assets like UN helicopters and other facilities that enable NGOs to reach vulnerable populations in the rural areas outside Nyala, Geneina, and Nyala. And there has been lots of negotiation about how much the UN would promise to reserve for the NGO community.

But that process was stopped just a few days after it began. UNAMID announced that it would be suspending its relocation of non-essential personnel - most them United Nations Civil Police Officers. Threats to restrict helicopter use and limits on NGO workers in the field have all but vanished. And most NGOs that relocated their staff to Khartoum or abroad are returning to the field in Darfur.

In the midst of all the demonstrations against the US and Europe over the recent ICC indictment of the president, government officials have also been meeting with NGOs to reassure them of continued support for humanitarian operations and ask NGOs not to panic or follow the example of the UN agencies.

The president organized a tour of the Darfur states to demonstrate to his detractors that he was not a threat to peace in Darfur and to show the level of support for him and his government among the Darfur people. The visit featured a great deal of fanfare including promises that the government would provide protection for the peacekeepers and humanitarian convoys that are frequently looted. He also invited the sole signatory to the peace agreement - Mini Minawi of the SLA -MM faction - to return to Khartoum for talks on ways to mend any disputes about the terms of the peace agreement.

Behind the scenes however the UN reported bombing raids on areas formally under SLA-MM control, which suggests that it may be too late for talks in Khartoum. Mini Minawi had been threatening to leave the peace process and resume the fight for his people in Darfur. It is possible that the government and the SLA-MM have already broken their agreement and resorted to a violent resolution of the conflict.

But today, in contradiction to the previous assurances from the President, the government issued a warning that it would not guarantee the well-being of the UN peacekeepers if the president were to be indicted by the ICC. (Click on this line to read the article in Al jazeera) The ICC prosecutor has requested an indictment on 10 counts including genocide and crimes against humanity, but the court is still waiting for the judge to review the request and issue the indictment. The government of Sudan has used a lot of its political capital to elicit the support of the African Union and Arab League to reject the issuance of an indictment and now this warning. It is very difficult to judge the direction this process will take and hard to estimate how the UN will manage resistance from the government combined with the potential for renewed fighting between all factions in the field.

A DRIVE IN THE DESERT

UN evacuates more than personnel

It has been a sad week in Fasher. The UN agencies finished evacuating their non-essential staff leaving fewer than 15 people behind to manage responses to only life-threatening situations.

UNAMID declared the whole of Darfur a phase IV zone, requiring all non-essential personnel to evacuate to Uganda, Egypt, and Ethiopia. They are calling it an administrative relocation because it sounds less like they are abandoning the people of the area. The plan was to get everyone - all 3,600 UN civilian personnel - out of the country in a 5 day period. That plan has hit a few snags. Mechanical problems, logistical mistakes, miscommunication, and lack of coordination have meant that nearly a thousand remain behind until the kinks in the system can be worked out.

The cessation of all field missions and restricted movement for UN assets like helicopters has also meant that NGOs have had to limit their activities and reduce their personnel to bare minimums. A few NGOs have not given in to what they feel is just hyper hysteria and continue to operate in the rural areas with little guarantee of evacuation should the rumors of an imminent attack against government controlled areas by the allegedly united rebel factions actually come true.

The usually bustling town is a tad off today. Stores are open and people go about their business but the largest employer and biggest economic driver is shipping out and people are scared. Mahmoud, a storekeeper in the central market, recently bet the farm on continued profits from UNAMID and other international customers - quite literally. Mahmoud sold a large area of his farm to build a warehouse and fill it mainly with bottled water. A profitable commodity, bottled water used to go for upwards of 9 dollars for 9 litres (six bottles of 1.5 litres of Safia). Today the market can barely hold at 6 dollars and Mahmoud predicts that the slide will continue. "No Sudanese will pay for water, it is unthinkable," he lamented. No sooner than you enter a person's home or shop in Darfur, you will receive a large metal cup of cool water. Declining is not insulting. I accepted once and wound up in the hospital with an intravenous drip, so now I decline with a smile and a hand over my heart to express thanks. But no thanks.

It is not hard to see the negative impact the departure of so many people will have on a town like Fasher. The UN had been on phase III when I arrived here 7 months ago. Now with phase IV and phase V around the corner (many people fear), they might as well call it "on your mark, get set, GO." At least that is the sentiment of many residents who feel abandoned and also wonder if the departure will mean the loss of jobs. UNAMID had been engaged in a massive recruitment campaign. Many NGOs lost good program and admin personnel to positions such as driver or security guard with UNAMID because of the significant difference in pay. This year, 45 school teachers in Fasher abandoned their posts in favor of jobs as translators, drivers, or security guards. The situation is even worse in the interior. Each employee supports families who have come to depend on this salary. Now the threat of that income diminishing or stopping is giving everyone in Fasher a reason to lament the departure of UNAMID personnel.

No one even talks about why they are leaving. Hard to even come close to narrowing down the reason for the decision to pull the plug. The recent attack is definitely one of the triggers. The belief that it was only the tip of a large, unseen iceberg of trouble is also probably a cause. But because we do not see any significant change in the conflict situation, it is hard to say what would trigger a return to former levels in Darfur. How long do we wait to see things deteriorate and say "ah, hah, see I told you the evacuation was necessary!" Or did the evacuation allow for the events to unfold the way they might?

Today word got out on the internet of an impending attack on Khartoum. Hundreds of vehicles heading toward the capital to ... what? Not sure. To drive home the message that what happens in Darfur is not a Darfur problem but a Sudanese problem. Hard to imagine that the rebels stand any chance of actually defeating the government. They will terrorize the town. Create apprehensions among the foreigners and bring Sudan back into the forefront of people's thoughts, for a while anyway.

It is hard to be a witness to all this movement of military materiel and young men newly trained to be the government's new loyal fighters without feeling like something more can and should be done.

The ICC came out with its indictment of the president, charging him with 10 counts of genocide. The statute of the ICC talks about helping to build reconciliation. That peace is not possible without justice. The prosecutor is at least doing something when the rest of us can only stare and shake our collective heads at the insanity of this war.

Does the threat of a warrant mean a threat to peace?

What peace?

All parties to this conflict have seen what price is paid by those who do not use the force of arms. Very few will go to that place again anytime soon. The best alternative to a negotiated agreement has not yet been uncovered. Probably buried somewhere under the next major battle with big losses on all sides, waiting for the first massive demonstration against the growing body count, or sitting on the sidelines waiting for the ammunitions and weapons supply to finally dry up. Until that happens, there is no peace to preserve. No in my opinion. For what it is worth.

Cool wind and heavy drops of rain, promises of a better night's sleep before I make my way to Khartoum in the morning.

Until then.

Will we stay or will we go - or get kicked out?

That is the question on many people's minds today. Will the government decide to lash back at the international community by canceling our travel authorizations and demanding that western organizations withdraw their international staff to Khartoum or even out of the country?

I think that would be extreme, even for this government. Sudan has faced previous indictments with little to no impact on the international community here, so I cannot envisage a drastic move like the expulsion of expatriates or attacks against UN troops in retaliation for an indictment against the president.

I am posting for the second time today because of the quickly changing environment in Darfur. Two international NGOs have sent their staff to Khartoum already in response to potential threats. The government of Sudan held military exercises in Nyala (capital of South Darfur) and in Khartoum (nation's capital) for reasons unknown. That has many people on edge, especially in Nyala, where we do not normally see overt displays of military prowess. In Fasher, it seems to be life as normal. But, as I stated before, much of the tension is just beneath the surface. It is very difficult to know just what people are thinking.

I will have an update on Sunday after the OCHA security update as to whether we have moved to a phase 4 security alertness and what it will mean for our mission here in Darfur.

Enjoy this Los Angeles Times article which gets at the meat of the threats facing the humanitarian community here in Darfur:

"Genocide Charges will be Sought"

By Maggie Farley, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
July 11, 2008

UNITED NATIONS -- The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor will ask judges to issue an arrest warrant for the president of Sudan next week on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity, diplomats and an official close to the case said Thursday.

The prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, issued a statement Thursday announcing that he would submit evidence of crimes committed against civilians in Sudan's western region of Darfur over the last five years, though he will wait until Monday at the pretrial chamber to name names.

If the judges issue an arrest warrant, Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir would be the first sitting or former head of state to be charged with genocide by the 6-year-old international court in The Hague.

The prosecutor may seek the arrests of other senior Sudanese officials later, said the official close to the case, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the proceedings.

U.N. officials are concerned that the request for warrants could cause the Sudanese government to retaliate against peacekeepers and aid workers in Darfur -- or even eject them. But they have not asked Moreno-Ocampo to soft-pedal his charges against Bashir, said U.N. and court officials.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had tried to keep the court's quest for justice in Darfur on the margins of negotiations with Sudanese officials, concerned that it would disrupt the deployment of additional troops for a United Nations-led peacekeeping force. But Thursday, he told reporters that "in principle, I believe that peace and justice should go hand in hand."

The Sudanese envoy to the world body fueled fears that a request for Bashir's arrest would jeopardize U.N. operations in Darfur. "All options are open," Ambassador Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem said. "It is playing with fire."

Darfur has been racked by violence since a rebellion against the central government began in 2003. At least 200,000 people have been killed, according to most estimates, most of the deaths blamed on militias that critics charge were unleashed by the government to put down the insurrection.

The U.N. in January took command of an African Union peacekeeping effort in Darfur. The force is expected to eventually consist of 26,000 troops, though it has grown only slightly from the original 9,000 African troops because of delays in deployment and supplies.

U.N. peacekeepers and aid workers, who have faced repeated attacks from gunmen, began retrenching in Darfur after an attack Tuesday on U.N. forces that killed seven and injured 20. The Sudanese ambassador blamed the Sudanese Liberation Movement/Unity rebel group, but U.N. officials say they suspect that the Sudanese army was linked to the attack.

Humanitarian groups have been withdrawing staff members from remote areas and preparing for demonstrations or attacks in response to Moreno-Ocampo's actions Monday.

"We take the situation quite seriously," said a humanitarian coordinator for Darfur, especially because nongovernmental organizations and the U.N. have faced frequent violence over the last six months. The coordinator requested anonymity for security reasons.

Sudan probably will not turn over its leader if a warrant is issued. Sudan has ignored arrest warrants issued last year for an official and a rebel leader, and even promoted the official, Ahmed Haroun, to oversee humanitarian affairs for the people he is charged with helping displace in Darfur.

"I swear to God, I swear to God, I swear to God, we will not hand over any Sudanese to the International Court," Bashir recently told a gathering of Sudan's Popular Defense Forces.

Moreno-Ocampo's strategy is risky, human rights groups and diplomats say. Besides potentially alienating the head of state who controls U.N. access to Darfur and triggering a retaliation, proving the crime of genocide is very difficult, said Richard Dicker, director of the International Justice Program at Human Rights Watch.

Moreno-Ocampo will have to show that the systematic killings in Darfur were ordered by Bashir with the specific intent to eliminate the Massalit, Zaghawa and Fur groups on the basis of their ethnicity.

The government claims that the conflict was triggered by rebels from those groups, and that the government and allied militias responded in self-defense. Any casualties occurred in the course of a counter- insurgency operation, and in intertribal warfare, officials have repeatedly said.

"If genocide is the charge that the ICC prosecutor is pursuing, he has set himself a high hurdle to get over," Dicker said.

Though warrants against Bashir would be a first for the ICC, its prosecutor would be following a path blazed by other tribunals.

A special court backed by the U.N. indicted Liberian President Charles Taylor in 2003 for atrocities committed during a 10-year civil war in neighboring Sierra Leone. His trial is underway.

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was indicted by the international war crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in 1999, while he was still in office, and was turned over to authorities after he was overthrown in a popular uprising. He died of heart failure in 2006 during his trial in The Hague.

Moreno-Ocampo, an Argentine who helped put his country's former ruling junta behind bars, has been called quixotic in his quest for justice while at the International Criminal Court. He has opened investigations of violent campaigns in the Democratic Republic of Congo, northern Uganda, Darfur and the Central African Republic. The court has issued 12 arrest warrants.

Moreno-Ocampo will be making his new far-reaching case against a backdrop of criticism after the recent collapse of his prosecution of a Congolese warlord accused of using child soldiers. The trial chamber suspended the trial of Thomas Lubanga after the court ruled that the prosecutor withheld evidence that could help the defense.

The Darfur case could help shore up Moreno-Ocampo's credibility, or undermine it.

"Charging a sitting head of state is going to generate a lot of commentary and controversy," Dicker said. "But given what has happened in Darfur since 2003, it is hardly a surprise that the trail of evidence leads to the head of state. It is an important step toward the end of impunity."

UN takes a hit and ICC prepares to hit again

Just returned from another incredible four-day trip into the desert. I will have more stories and pictures (!) to share about that later when we get power to the office.

The most pressing issue in Sudan today is the looming threat of more violence directed at UN peacekeepers. Yesterday, UN agencies in Khartoum and the Darfur states voted on whether to reclassify the region as a phase 4 after 7 peacekeepers were killed and 20 were wounded in a well-planned ambush by men on horseback and in well armed 4x4 vehicles.
See more on this incident in this article from the July 10th article By Stephanie McCrummen in the Washintgon Post - 7 Troops Killed in Sudan Ambush : Gunmen Besiege Peacekeepers in Northern Darfur

The International Criminal Court is on the verge of indicting and issuing a warrant of arrest for the president of the Sudan. The implications of such an action are debated in this article from this July 11^th Memo From Africa section in the New York Times

The Pursuit of Justice vs. the Pursuit of Peace

By LYDIA POLGREEN and MARLISE SIMONS

DAKAR, Senegal — When Luis Moreno-Ocampo, prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, reported to the United Nations Security Council last month, he painted a dire tableau of death, rape and dispossession in Darfur, saying the entire state apparatus was involved in a five-year campaign of terror there. His target, it seemed, was Sudan’s president.

On Thursday, the prosecutor’s office said it had prepared its second case involving war crimes in Darfur, a region of Sudan. Now analysts, diplomats, aid workers and United Nations officials are bracing for the increasing likelihood that Mr. Moreno-Ocampo will ask the judges for an arrest warrant for the president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir.

The indictment of a sitting head of state in a war-torn country would not be unprecedented: Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia and Charles Taylor of Liberia were both charged by international war crimes courts while in office.

But the complexity and fragility of Sudan’s multiple conflicts have led many diplomats, analysts and aid workers to worry that the Sudanese government could lash out at the prosecutor’s move by expelling Western diplomats and relief workers who provide aid to millions of people displaced by the fighting, provoking a vast crisis and shutting the door to vital diplomatic efforts to bring lasting peace.

The dueling objectives have exposed a growing tension: between justice and peace, that is, between the prosecution of war criminals and the compromises of diplomacy.

Darfur, in many ways, is in freefall. On Tuesday, seven peacekeepers were killed in an ambush, sending shockwaves through the already demoralized international peacekeeping force there.

“It is escalating every day,” said a senior United Nations peacekeeping official in Darfur. “The government wants us to fail. We are doing our best, but we are under attack everywhere.”

Aid groups are struggling to provide basic assistance, as they face increased banditry and harassment. Last week Sudanese authorities expelled several staff members of the aid group Doctors Without Borders. Hijackings of aid vehicles in Darfur have become an almost daily occurrence, peacekeeping officials say.

Beyond that, in southern Sudan, the embers are cooling after a fierce battle in May over the disputed oil-rich town of Abyei that displaced 50,000 people. Tensions remain extraordinarily high between the sides, which fought a 20-year civil war that ended in a fragile peace accord in 2005. A government of national unity is holding, but only just.

Many argue that the added strain of war crimes charges against the head of state would push an already precarious nation over the edge.

“It is certainly going to close off all sorts of options for diplomacy and leave us very few options other than condemnation and isolation,” said J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Other analysts and activists argue that it could increase pressure on the Sudanese government at a critical moment — when peacekeeping forces in Darfur are increasingly under attack, the peace agreement with the south is in danger of collapsing and the aid effort in Darfur hangs by a thread.

“I think it is absolutely imperative to go straight to the top,” said John Prendergast, a former Clinton administration official who co-founded Enough, a group that seeks to end genocide. He argued that concerted pressure by the international community had changed Sudan’s behavior at times.

Sudanese officials declined to comment, saying they would wait until the prosecutor made his announcement. But in the past, the Sudanese government has rejected the legitimacy of the court, arguing that Sudanese courts are capable of prosecuting any crimes. The international court has already brought criminal charges against two senior government officials, but the government has refused to hand them over. One was even given a promotion.

In the short term, a request for Mr. Bashir’s arrest could have a potentially devastating impact on the people of Darfur. Representatives of the Sudanese government have long said that they view the entire aid and security apparatus in Darfur as accomplices of the international court, bent on regime change.

Aid organizations say they are under intense scrutiny by Sudan’s intelligence agencies, which monitor their communications and tightly control their visas and permits to work in Darfur. Several foreign aid workers have been expelled at least in part on suspicion of providing information to the International Criminal Court.

The government already accuses nongovernmental organizations and the United Nations “of passing information to the I.C.C.,” said one senior aid official in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, speaking anonymously for fear of retribution. “There is quite strong concern they will expel U.N. staff and possibly entire agencies.”

Diplomats are also worried about the impact an indictment might have on efforts to revive peace talks in Darfur, which have been stalled for the better part of a year, and on efforts to prevent the complete dissolution of the strained 2005 peace deal between the north and south.

For months, talks have been taking place between the United States and Sudan, with American officials trying to persuade Sudan to improve security in Darfur and strengthen the peace agreement with the south.

In exchange, Sudanese officials would get better relations with the United States, something they have sought for years, according to diplomats and analysts. But that process would be much more difficult if Mr. Bashir were formally charged with war crimes, Western diplomats said.

Diplomats have predicted dire consequences from arrest warrants before. When Mr. Milosevic, then Yugoslavia’s president, was first indicted in 1999 — during the conflict in Kosovo — German, French and Russian politicians said it would put a fatal obstacle in the way of peace negotiations. When he was transferred to The Hague, diplomats worried it would destabilize the region.

Similarly, when the Special Court for Sierra Leone unsealed its arrest warrant for Mr. Taylor, then Liberia’s president, in 2003, in the midst of intense fighting there, diplomats and others involved in peace negotiations privately warned of disastrous consequences. Kofi Annan, then the United Nations secretary general, was furious and reportedly told his aides it was a threat to the peace process.

Both leaders ultimately fell from power, and the role the indictments played in either prolonging or shortening conflict has been much debated.

More recently, diplomats have complained that arrest warrants hampered a peace deal with the Lord’s Resistance Army, which has ravaged northern Uganda for 20 years.

Led by Joseph Kony, the rebel group has kidnapped thousands of children and turned them into soldiers and sex slaves. Mr. Kony agreed to take part in peace talks, but only if the international arrest warrants against him were lifted. The Security Council, which has the power to suspend prosecutions, was reportedly ready to agree if Mr. Kony signed.

“But he failed to appear,” said Richard Dicker, director of the international justice program at Human Rights Watch. “It turns out that the rebel group used the talks as a screen to beef up its depleted ranks.”

The argument that peace trumps justice might be more compelling in Darfur, human rights workers argue, if there were a peace process achieving results there. But peace efforts are at a virtual standstill. Previous efforts to bring the fractious rebel groups together to negotiate ended in failure.

Still, the short-term risks of seeking an indictment are grave, said Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert at the Social Science Research Council in New York.

“Bashir is paranoid; he feels the world is out to get him,” Mr. de Waal said. “He is prone to irrational outbursts and could respond in a very aggressive way.”

Trigger happy day in Fasher

Today's short story takes place in El Fasher, the administrative capital of North Darfur.

I sent an article a while back about the number of carjackings in town and around the IDP camps. Well, today, some unlucky group decided to try to carjack a couple of trucks from a local construction company. They fired a few shots in the air to put off any one brave enough to try to stop them and sped off down the streets headed for out of town.

The ever present border police were immediately on their tails and managed to stop the vehicles and apprehend them. The police were so proud of themselves that they could not resist firing off a few rounds to let people know of their victory. No sooner had one soldier started firing his automatic rifle did people all around the city begin to fire in response. Gunfire was everywhere. I think all my neighbors fired at least 20 rounds before the city grew quiet. I did not know about the carjacking or the police at the time and thought that everyone had heard some particularly good news on the radio or something, But in actuality, it turns out that rumor quickly spread that rebels were trying to take the town and people fired their guns to send a message to the would-be-rebels that they will face a well-armed civilian population if they tried. The army (which also did not get the memo) set up roadblocks and rolled out a tank - tearing up the newly paved road in the process.

The whole matter did not last for more than 20 minutes but people are so high strung that it took no more than a few celebratory shots to set everyone on edge.

So much for veil of peace.

Surfing the dry river beds of Darfur

Forgive the long delay.

I finally managed to leave the cities and travel to the field. Then the city ran out of fuel again and we had no internet connection for a week. Suffice it say that it has not been a good past 2 weeks for communication.

I am happy to report that I managed to spend a week in the most beautiful desert landscape I have ever seen. It is not the typical sandy desert with dunes. It was in the higher elevations and very rocky. It reminded me somewhat of Arizona - a state in the southwestern part of the United States - but this area was far more pristine. White sand, yellowish rocks, against a pale blue sky. Not quite as hot as Fasher or Nyala and definitely cooler than Khartoum these days. I arrived the day before the regional market day and was able to see thousands of people descend from the surrounding hills bringing their wares to sell or trade. Most were on foot but had four or five donkeys carrying their goods to market. The children either walked or rode along with the merchandise. I wish I could have taken a picture of the throngs of folks crossing the dry river bed (called Wadi). Here the sand is white and deep and people move very slowly passing these huge trees that grow in the center of the rivers. I thought at first they were Boabab trees but I now know them as Tibaldi trees. Are they the same thing? Guess I could have looked that up before writing in this log, but you are free to do so. Okay rambling again. But the image of the people wearing so many different colors moving slowly towards a vibrant market day was amazing.

Unfortunately, a breathtaking moment is not always a picture taking moment, especially when you have a few dozen rough looking militia and soldiers also making their way to the market to keep order in case some of the merchants or traders happen to be rebels looking for trouble. So the camera stayed in the bag.

While I was visiting this desert paradise, I experienced my first real rain. It rained from morning to evening and the following day the town was empty. Merchants closed their shops. The market where I buy my pita bread was closed. It was not until the helicopter flight out back to Fasher that I saw everyone out in the fields planting. The dry river beds became roaring rivers and the white sandy and rocky landscape took on a pale green hue. Amazing to be able to witness this natural transition from barren land to green terrain with promise.

I also managed to fly over a few displaced persons camps and villages along the way since the helicopter flies very low. The life of an IDP is one of fear. Every time the UN opens an encampment, those afraid of renewed attacks with pitch their tent close-by. When another 500 households do the same, a camp is born. Suddenly the needs of one family is complicated by the competing needs of 20,000 people. Many of these camps are not government approved and attempts are made to dismantle them or deny its residents access to humanitarian food and water. But eventually access is granted and these camps become formally recognized IDP concentrations. The ideal is for the international organizations and NGOs to establish a camp formally, with rows between each house, designated areas for latrines and schools, and social time. Unfortunately most camps look like this picture. People all pushed together and little chance for reorganization.

I will speak more about the camps in my next entry. We just lost power again and I will sign off to save on the battery life of this computer.