Confuson and Dangerous Politics

The threats that led the UN to move the security level to phase IV in Darfur and phase III in Khartoum seemed to all but vanish over the past week. Phase IV protocols require that all UN agencies relocate or evacuate all non-essential personnel. We had been holding meeting on a daily basis with UN humanitarian coordinating bodies discussing how many NGOs would qualify for evacuation should the situation go phase V which requires the evacuation of all personnel. Many NGOs voiced concern about the possible loss of important assets like UN helicopters and other facilities that enable NGOs to reach vulnerable populations in the rural areas outside Nyala, Geneina, and Nyala. And there has been lots of negotiation about how much the UN would promise to reserve for the NGO community.

But that process was stopped just a few days after it began. UNAMID announced that it would be suspending its relocation of non-essential personnel - most them United Nations Civil Police Officers. Threats to restrict helicopter use and limits on NGO workers in the field have all but vanished. And most NGOs that relocated their staff to Khartoum or abroad are returning to the field in Darfur.

In the midst of all the demonstrations against the US and Europe over the recent ICC indictment of the president, government officials have also been meeting with NGOs to reassure them of continued support for humanitarian operations and ask NGOs not to panic or follow the example of the UN agencies.

The president organized a tour of the Darfur states to demonstrate to his detractors that he was not a threat to peace in Darfur and to show the level of support for him and his government among the Darfur people. The visit featured a great deal of fanfare including promises that the government would provide protection for the peacekeepers and humanitarian convoys that are frequently looted. He also invited the sole signatory to the peace agreement - Mini Minawi of the SLA -MM faction - to return to Khartoum for talks on ways to mend any disputes about the terms of the peace agreement.

Behind the scenes however the UN reported bombing raids on areas formally under SLA-MM control, which suggests that it may be too late for talks in Khartoum. Mini Minawi had been threatening to leave the peace process and resume the fight for his people in Darfur. It is possible that the government and the SLA-MM have already broken their agreement and resorted to a violent resolution of the conflict.

But today, in contradiction to the previous assurances from the President, the government issued a warning that it would not guarantee the well-being of the UN peacekeepers if the president were to be indicted by the ICC. (Click on this line to read the article in Al jazeera) The ICC prosecutor has requested an indictment on 10 counts including genocide and crimes against humanity, but the court is still waiting for the judge to review the request and issue the indictment. The government of Sudan has used a lot of its political capital to elicit the support of the African Union and Arab League to reject the issuance of an indictment and now this warning. It is very difficult to judge the direction this process will take and hard to estimate how the UN will manage resistance from the government combined with the potential for renewed fighting between all factions in the field.