Good analysis from a Gulf State perspective

Kharartoum and Crocodile Tears, by Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed Al-Arabiya News Channel, July 24, 2008 The shock triggered by the ICC prosecutor's decision to charge Sudanese president Omar Bashir of war crimes has passed. We don't know yet if the government in Khartoum has recovered from its awe or is still at the peak of its anger. Here is the messenger of crises, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, starting a series of trips to and from the Sudanese capital, ones that might last for long if the government keeps its mouth shut and its ears open. On the first days of shock, some of the Sudanese officials showered me with criticism because I wrote that in principle the ICC has the right to try regimes that abuse power against their people. I didn't say that president Bashir, or anyone else, is guilty. I just said the principle is right and necessary to deter regimes that err. I am sure the decision was welcome by the intelligentsia and political activists in the Arab world and those who see that some regimes are not satisfied with imprisoning the symbols of opposition, but also go as far killing hundreds, even thousands, of their own people. Instead of criticizing the court or the opposition, Sudanese officials have to think about the ordeal they are facing now. They have to listen to those who oppose them and criticize them and not just those who shed crocodile tears and declare fake solidarity. Wise, balanced thinking might lead to a solution, but those who only cheer will make them sink deeper into the ICC swamp. I remind them that the current regime in Sudan is no stronger than that of Saddam, no richer than that of Libya at the time of Lockerbie, and not more important than that of Yugoslavia at the time of the Bosnian war. In a matter of months, the case will get more serious and the Sudanese regime will not find support from any of the Arab governments. Their Chinese ally, with all the support it gave to the Bashir regime and to the dictator of Zimbabwe, will not jeopardize its international interests. They will do what the Russians did when they supported Milosevic with money and weapons due to blood, religious, and political ties with the Serbs; but when he was arrested and tried, they abandoned him. If we want to enumerate the mistakes of the Sudanese regime, we will fill entire books. Throughout the past three years, the Sudanese government has been defying all human rights organizations and delegates that kept prompting it to solve the Darfur crisis. Instead of complying with international demands, the regime kept claiming that the situation is stable in Darfur and that reports about assaults, arson, expulsion, and killing were sheer lies. I am sure that at the time Khartoum was capable of solving the problem and cooperating with the international community to end the tragedy. But because the government is used to suppressing opposition, it ignored all international protests and branded the protestors a bunch of unworthy artists, intellectuals and women. That's how the matter reached the court, and the Khartoum leaders did not realize how serious it was. They were not aware that there are international demands for their trial. Added to that, no head of state will dare to obstruct the court since we are in the big elections year. If the Arab League plan, delivered by Secretary General Amr Moussa, aims at solving the Darfur problem and not just getting Bashir out of his ordeal, then this is a smart and fair step. The main purpose is not to defy the court or support Bashir or to declare him innocent, but to achieve a balance. It is true that the Arab League called for respecting the sovereignty of nations, but this was just embellished talk that aimed at calming things down and did not benefit the Sudanese government in one way or another. The most challenging mission is finding a solution that satisfies the UN Security Council, such as holding an international conference to solve the Darfur problem, which means getting the Sudanese government to agree to something it has been rejecting for years. The sovereignty pretext is no longer valid as the death of thousands necessitates international intervention in any country and under any circumstances. The international conference will mean the Sudanese government will no longer be in charge of handling the crisis in the plighted province and could thus be the only way to save the regime from being chased. Handing the reins to the international community is much better than arresting and trying the president. No matter how much support the Sudanese leaders are getting from internal or external parties, they realize—or at least feel—that lots of those harbor feelings against them and that some of them are happy to see the tiger in the cage. No matter how much support they garner inside or outside Sudan, there will be two problems. First, it is temporary support and second, it has no effect on the ICC. After the crowds are dispersed, the regime will have to face the court. That is why I wish that Khartoum would get over the initial shock and start to think wisely about giving up the incriminating language and menacing strategy because this will not stop the ICC. Sooner or later, Sudanese leaders will discover that most of the tears are those of crocodiles and that if they don't help themselves, nobody will. The Sudanese regime should not count on internal and external support and should not delude itself with the immunity of sovereignty because all this is talk that runs like water through sand on the sea shore. The real enemy of the regime is that which implicated it and deceived it into believing that the court has no right to try it under the pretext that it is not a signatory to its treaty. The matter got serious when the Security Council referred the Darfur case to the ICC. At this point, the court verdict becomes obligatory for all states, including those who didn't sign the treaty. Now, the situation is complicated and a solution outside the court is not guaranteed. However, if the regime solves the problem of hundreds of thousands of refugees in Darfur, this might strengthen the position of those who want to help it. If the Sudanese government agrees to power sharing with other Sudanese factions it deprived of ruling the country, the Sudanese people could unite to support it. Finally, Khartoum’s leaders should learn from precedents, whether those who were saved because they compromised or those who fell because they were obstinate. * Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed is the general manager of Al-Arabiya News Channel. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla. (This opinion piece was translated from Arabic by Sonia Farid).